A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
